Oklahoma has seen a dramatic increase in small to medium earthquakes over the last fifteen years. This corresponds to the period in which the injection of waste water from fracking oil wells has also dramatically increased. Unfortunately for the residents of Oklahoma, oil and gas operations have been highly profitable and are tilting the actions of government away from any response to this increase in earthquakes.
The facts are obvious: the New York Times (NYT) has shown documents that indicate that, as 1.1 billion barrels of waste water were injected into deep wells in 2013, the number of earthquakes has increased by many fold. In 2000, there were twenty-nine quakes with a magnitude of 3 or above. In 2014, there were 5,417 such quakes, concentrated in north central Oklahoma, where most of the injection wells are functioning.
Oil and gas businesses claim that the quakes are a natural phenomenon and not due to the waste water wells. But research done in England (where there are virtually no faults to confuse the picture) has conclusively demonstrated that these wells cause earthquakes. As one commenter to the NYT story(Maani of New York, NY) wrote,
“Just as with anthropogenic climate change, the science on fracking vis-à-vis earthquakes is actually quite settled. It was first discovered – and settled – by seismologists in England, where the relation of earthquakes to fracking is more easily determined because there are few if any faults in the areas in which the fracking is occurring.
Here in the U.S., seismologists, including from the USGS, have also recognized a causal relationship between fracking and earthquakes (or at least tremors). Oklahoma sits along the Meers fault line, so tremors and quakes are a natural occurrence. However, seismologists, who have been monitoring quakes along the Meers fault for decades, have determined that, since fracking began, there has been at least a threefold increase in tremors over 3.3, and a fivefold increase in tremors over 5.0.
As with climate change, the “deniers” do not need to fully support their position. All they need to do is “sow doubt” by underwriting “scientific” studies that support the conclusion they are looking for. Sadly, all too many in the U.S. cannot tell the difference between real science and junk science.”
There have been, in the last several centuries, a few very serious earthquakes in the Midwest: in 1811-1812, a series of quakes caused widespread destruction in the New Madrid area of Missouri, which is not far from Oklahoma. They are believed to be the largest earthquakes in the eastern United States in recorded history. The magnitude of the largest of these quakes was estimated at up to 8.0. Quakes in this fault complex are felt over a huge area of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas, reaching all the way to Oklahoma in the west. This fault complex is, among others, called the Reelfoot Rift, after a lake that was created by the obstruction of rivers during the earthquakes. Over 4,000 quakes have occurred in this area since then, most less than 3.0 magnitude.
In 2003, the USGS released an estimate of the risk of future quakes in that area:
” New forecasts estimate a 7 to 10 percent chance, in the next 50 years, of a repeat of a major earthquake like those that occurred in 1811–1812, which likely had magnitudes of between 7.5 and 8.0. There is a 25 to 40 percent chance, in a 50-year time span, of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake.”
(Quotes are from Wikipedia)
The Reelfoot Rift is a good distance from Oklahoma, but there are smaller rifts within the state that can be activated either spontaneously or in response to the pressure created by injecting materials (waste water) into the fault zones. It is very clear that the dramatic increase in quakes there is not a natural phenomenon, but it is less clear whether injections could cause a major earthquake like the New Madrid disaster.
The problem is that even small, 5.0 magnitude quakes can cause destruction and even a few deaths. Homeowners whose houses have been damaged have been forced to sue the drilling companies to get compensation for the damage to their houses; none of these suits have been settled or gone to judgement yet.
(Addendum, April 16, 2015: very few of the homeowners in Oklahoma had earthquake insurance, and the insurance wouldn’t have helped anyway. There is usually a clause in these policies that excludes induced earthquakes, and the insurance companies would be sure to insist that the earthquakes are induced– despite industry claims that they are natural.)
The bottom line is that fracking and waste water injection cause earthquakes (not to mention the risk of groundwater contamination) and this side effect is going to have to be dealt with in some way. In a just society, those responsible for the damages would be forced to compensate those who are injured or lost property as a result of their behavior. This has not happened, and will not happen because of the tremendous political power that large amounts of money bestow upon any company that makes the money. Even litigation will not produce a just result, since only a few people will be compensated in this way. Class action lawsuits are a poor substitute for government action to restore the balance of justice.
The only just answer to this problem is to remove money from politics. Somehow, those with large amounts of money are going to have to relinquish some of their outlandish degree of political power. Recent Supreme Court judgments, however, have trended in the opposite direction. Our Supreme Court is corrupt, and this problem must be dealt with as well.
(Revision, April 16, 2015: the water injected in these wells is not from fracking, but a much larger volume of waste water that is removed from the material that comes up in the normal operation of oil wells in the area. When these oil wells produce, much of what comes up is not oil or even natural gas, but briny water full of heavy metals and complex toxic compounds related to oil.)
Mother in law’s tombstone kills man
According to the Reuters news agency, a man was helping his wife decorate his mother-in-law’s tomb prior to the Easter Holiday when the 400 pound tombstone toppled over in the “soft spring ground”, pinning him underneath. His wife ran to get the caretaker, who came and pulled part of the stone off him, but it was too late and he died. Apparently, although the story is unclear, another party arrived and helped to pull the rest of the stone off of him, but it doesn’t say just when he died. It’s possible he lived for a short time afterwards, but it’s also possible he was killed immediately.
We don’t know and it doesn’t matter. The man’s mother in law reached out from the grave and killed him, there’s no doubt in my mind. Mother in laws are like that.
Religion, Cult, or Money-Making Enterprise?
Speaking of religion, here is an outrageous fact: establishments of religion, and their ministers, are exempt from taxation in the United States, presumably based on the notion that religion is a public good that justifies the sheltering of its outposts and proselytes. What is a public good of religion? That is highly arguable. Most atheists, and many agnostics, would deny that there is any “public good” to religion that could justify a tax exemption.
At least, the benevolent view of religion would say that it is a sort of social glue that holds society together; in many cases, there are also charitable activities such as caring for the poor. However, there are “religions” that can be shown to provide no public good whatsoever, and in fact are organized for the express purpose of avoiding taxes.
One such “religion” was established by a well-known science fiction writer of the 1950’s. In his writings, he mused on what the best way to earn a good living would be; he concluded that religion was best, since all earnings could be made (or argued to be) tax-exempt. He had, in addition to a native intelligence, what is known in Ireland as “the gift of the gab” meaning he could keep listeners in a state of near-hypnosis while spinning tales for hours on end.
He himself felt emotions and mental states that distressed him, which he could not personally control at first. He discovered the use of a simple electronic device which measured the electrical conductivity of the skin; this tracked quite closely to a person’s state of anxiety, partially based on subliminal sweating(which greatly improves the transmission of a tiny electrical current). By experimenting with the device, he discovered the fact that repeated exposure to a stressful stimulus evokes a gradually decreasing anxiety reaction (the psychological principle of “extinction”)
On this basis, he established a religion which started with the use of a physical tool for observing anxiety, the measurement of relative skin conductance or resistance to electric current. This device was used to probe the mental state of an individual in relation to thoughts that were elicited that might cause anxiety or distress. The religious practitioner would ask the acolyte what things were causing her distress, and the acolyte would relate these items, which would then be written down.
With repeated exposure to these distressing items, the body’s drop in electrical resistance (partly caused by subliminal sweating) would be attenuated, and over time the reaction would be extinguished (eliminated.) It was then said that the subject had eliminated these sources of distress from his psyche. At that point, if the subject could be induced to undergo further sessions with the device, the practitioner would search for other sources of distress, perhaps incidents that occurred in the past.
The key money-making component of this religion was that each session was paid for ahead of time by the subject. Usually, she would feel tremendous relief at discovering that certain incidents or situations were causing a reaction that could be observed and at the same time, felt as a source of distress; repeated exposure to the items would reduce the reaction and make the subject feel that the distress was being relieved.
People who were introduced to this procedure were usually those who already felt a kind of free-floating anxiety about matters of which they were not completely aware. People who felt perfectly comfortable with themselves would look upon this procedure with considerable skepticism and were unlikely to get involved or pay good money. Thus, people who were in distress were those most likely to seek out and try this “religion.”
These distressed people would pour out their troubles to the practitioner and then feel a great relief afterwards. With conditioning, this relief became self-reinforcing and the money just rolled in. At the same time, the practitioner was gaining a tremendous amount of information about things that were distressing to the subject and also likely to prove a source of embarrassment or shame if they were revealed publicly.
People who persisted with this series of procedures (and the series never ended, since once current worries were relieved, the practitioner would search further and further into the subject’s past for additional sources of distress) eventually became “cured”, except that a person could never really be completely cured, at least not permanently. However, after investing a significant amount of money in the procedures and achieving a significant sense of improved well-being, the subject would be gradually introduced into the mythology behind the procedures. If the subject became disillusioned on learning about this absurd back story, often she could be blackmailed into silence using the information gained previously.
At no time would it ever be revealed that, first, the measuring device simply detected skin resistance usually related to psychic distress elicited by the thoughts related to the questioning, and second, the relief that the subject felt was purely a function of the process of revealing things that were distressing to a fellow human being. The same relief could be felt after confessing one’s sins to a priest, or consulting a psychoanalyst, or talking to one’s aunt over coffee. These secrets (unknown even to the practitioner in most cases) formed the basis of a powerful mystique which rewarded the subject for paying money to have the procedures.
Once the science-fiction writer had developed this technique and this measuring device, he began to practice his religion and claimed to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that all his earnings (which he duly reported) were tax-exempt. At first, the IRS denied his tax-exemption; over the years, this evolved into an all-out battle between him, his organization, and the IRS. The stakes grew ever higher with every year that he failed to pay taxes, until the IRS claimed that he owed a billion dollars in back taxes, interest, and penalties.
At last, after he had developed a large and powerful organization with expensive lawyers, filed over two thousand lawsuits against that division of the federal government known as the Internal Revenue Service, and engaged in a well-funded public campaign to destroy the public’s trust in the institution of taxes, the IRS finally caved in. In 1993, the IRS declared that it accepted the claim that the science fiction writer’s “religion” was in fact a tax-exempt organization. By this time, the organization was enormous and had as many as 500 thousand disciples (according to adherents.com); however, since then, the membership has dwindled to possibly less than 50 thousand. At the same time, the book value of the organization (primarily invested in prime real estate) has grown rapidly, and now exceeds $3 billion by conservative estimates.
There are many other aspects to this organization which are exceptionally disingenuous, blatantly fraudulent, or callous and brutal, but the basic procedure remains the same. There is nothing religious about this procedure, and the mythology behind it makes it seem absurd, but at heart, it is a money making enterprise operated for the benefit of its higher-level disciples and certain celebrity acolytes. It is obvious that the top 0.1% of them live like kings and the rest work like dogs.
I will not name this organization for obvious reasons, but anyone with a subscription to HBO can watch the movie recently released to discover just how brutal and disingenuous the people who run it are. If anyone reading this can guess who these people are and wishes to discredit me, or even attack me, just ask yourself: is it worth your time and trouble to assault such an unimportant, little read writer?
The Evolution of Judaeo-Christian Beliefs
Here is a little argument about Heaven and Hell that I’ve never heard before. Not that I believe in “the Afterlife” of any variety at all (even Near Death experiences), but my eye was caught by a reference to the evolution of beliefs about Heaven and Hell and I found this interesting to an objective view of religion.
The argument, written by Winston Wu, is that there is no eternal Heaven and no Hell in the Old Testament except in the very latest portion, the Book of Daniel. This Book is thought to have been written some time in the second century BCE, roughly 165. At this time, the Jews were “in exile in Babylon” and under the rule of King Antiochus IV(c. 175), who took over control of the Jewish religion by replacing the high priest, plundering the Temple treasury, and setting up an altar to Olympian Zeus within the Temple precinct. The Maccabean revolt was partially in response to the tyrannical rule of Antiochus and the Seleucid dynasty, and Daniel reflects this orientation. The Seleucids tried to introduce the Jews to Zoroastrianism, which, not by coincidence, had a well-developed concept of Heaven and Hell. The Jewish savants would have been exposed to Zoroaster during his lifetime because they were captives of the Persians and did not return to Palestine until the Maccabean revolt.
Zoroaster, a prophet of the time around 630-550 BCE, taught that the world was the site of a titanic struggle between good and evil, embodied by the gods Omazd (Ahura Mazda) and Ahriman(Angra Mainu.) This struggle was not endless, but contained in a finite series of time periods (between four and seven) during which things would get progressively worse, culminating in a final victory of good over evil and the onset of an eternity of goodness. During this final age, the just people of the present would receive their just reward and dwell with the god of goodness forever. Bad people, however, would be cast into eternal darkness to suffer forever.
This type of religion is known as apocalyptic, based on the idea that there would eventually be a final battle between good and evil with the victory of good justifying everyone’s hopes (and fears.) Prior to the time of the influence of Zoroastrianism over Judaism, the Jews did not have an apocalyptic point of view (according to this argument.) There was no “elaborate angelogy or demonology.” Satan, originally a servant of God and his prosecutor, became more and more like the anti-god Ahriman. Finally, the Zoroastrians had the notion of a “virgin-born Savior” who would raise the dead and judge them at the end time; this idea was borrowed and turned into Jesus Christ.
As a corollary, Darrell Till states that Judaism had a “fuzzy” notion of what happened after death and appeared to conclude that the dead simply went down under to a place called “sheol” and dwelt (still dead) in this underworld forever. There appears to have been considerable skepticism about whether there was any life after death. This attitude corresponds to the Greek idea of the Underworld, which was definitely underground and could be reached through a cave.
What makes all this entertaining is that it seems to show that religions, and religion in general, have gone through evolutions and have merged into each other. The idea is that Judaism borrowed its eschatology from Zoroastrianism and that Christianity evolved from a merger of the two religions. It is probable that Islam can be shown to be an evolution of Judaism and Christianity; this is plainly shown in that Mohammed incorporated both religions as acceptable forebears. Zoroastrianism appears to have disappeared, or at least become completely submerged.
There are also indications that the religious syncretism that resulted in Christianity occurred in Greece, or at least in a Greek-speaking or Hellenistic context: the New Testament was originally written in Greek.
This is merely a dip of the toe into the subject, coming from the following documents:
http://www.debunkingskeptics.com/DebunkingChristians/Page28.htm (“The Evolution of Heaven and Hell” by Winston Wu, 2011, part of a series on “debunking” Christianity)
http://www.theskepticalreview.com/tsrmag/014front.html (“Daniel and the Resurrection” by Farrell Till)
There is enough on this subject to fill a lifetime’s research, so don’t take it badly if you’ve never heard it before. I’m currently reading a book on the Hellenistic world from the death of Alexander the Great to the battle of Actium, a period of only 300 years; it is nearly 1,000 pages long, including 120 pages of footnotes. Most of what happens is forgotten.

A new analysis of Ronald Reagan’s news conferences demonstrates that he showed evidence of dementia while he was still president, in fact during his campaign for a second term. Everyone knows that Reagan wasn’t diagnosed with Alzheimer’s Disease until 1994, six years after he left the presidency.
The analysis, reported in the New York Times (NYT), shows that Reagan developed changes consistent with early Alzheimer’s Disease while he was still president. He is not known to have displayed any clear loss of decision making ability or memory, but certain subtle changes were already obvious during his debates with Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale in 1984. Compared to the elder President Bush, Reagan showed signs of using words repetitively and substituting nonspecific words like “thing” for specific nouns. He also showed a progressive impoverishment in his vocabulary.
Another telltale symptom is the routine that Reagan used when participating in Cabinet meetings. He had a set of index cards that spelled out how he was to respond to each Cabinet member’s speech. The cards were prepared by his staff to cue him what questions to ask of each member; at the end, he was given an exit line, just as if he were reading from a script.
Although the author of the NYT article, Lawrence K. Altman, MD, claims that there was no evidence of loss of decision making ability, we can confidently conclude that Reagan entered office with a weak grasp of politics and a superficial knowledge level in general. Reagan’s decision to dramatically lower taxes, especially on wealthy people, led to a sudden deficit in current accounts, and he was later forced to raise taxes again to close the gap. He was warned by his economic advisers of the likely result of his tax reductions, but he clung to the mistaken belief that lowering taxes would somehow increase collections.
At the same time (August 1981), Reagan suddenly fired all the striking air traffic controllers, ignoring their legitimate grievances about working conditions that had prompted the strike. The controllers had actually supported his candidacy for president, based on promises his campaign made to the union about how negotiations would go after he was elected. After Reagan won the presidency, his negotiators took a hard line with the union, basically going back on the promises he had made to get elected.
The controllers had been losing money to inflation for the past decade, and their demands included a large pay raise. This was unpopular with the general public, and sympathy was on Reagan’s side. Since civil service employees were forbidden by law to strike, they were taking an extreme risk. Reagan fired all the striking workers (the majority of the workforce) and banned them from civil service jobs for life. It took almost ten years (according to Wikipedia) for the air traffic control system to return to full operation; ironically, many of the changes that the union had demanded were instituted because of the shortage of controllers caused by the firing.
Many controllers were forced into poverty by this action, and only 800 of them got their jobs back when Clinton rescinded Reagan’s orders blacklisting them. The cost to the airlines and the flying public was vastly greater than if Reagan had acquiesced to the controller’s demands, but to Reagan it was the principle of the thing (an extremely simplistic point of view, as opposed to a nuanced perception.)
Reagan’s action gave private employers a tremendous boost in confidence in dealing with their own workers. They began to treat them as if they could be hired and fired at will, without giving any cause. The result has been a steady erosion in the number of workers represented by unions and the rights of workers in general. The most negative result, indirectly, was to force down the average wage despite dramatic increases in productivity. The average wage is less now than it was forty years ago, in part because of how Reagan treated the air traffic controllers.
The end result of Reagan’s actions was to reverse the improvements in conditions for workers that had occurred since WW II. The level of income and wealth inequality has returned to the unsustainable levels that prevailed just prior to the Great Depression. This inequality is destabilizing to society; if current trends continue, democratic government will be lost, and the United States will be governed by a small oligarchy, with a large police force and many people in jail. Such a situation is conducive to social unrest and possibly even civil war.
(Ronald Reagan courtesy of WikiImages)
Making Money From Prisons and Prisoners
The United States has the largest proportion of its population in prison, of any country in the world, including China and Russia. A majority of these prisoners are of minority origin, either black(African-American) or brown (Mexican), and blacks in particular face a much greater risk of being arrested, incarcerated, and sentenced to longer prison terms, followed by long periods on parole.
While some uninformed persons may claim that blacks are in prison more because they commit more crimes, there is good evidence that blacks are the victims of prejudice rather than the perpetrators of crimes. Blacks are suspected more, convicted more readily on less evidence, and sentenced to longer terms for the same crimes. Considering that 95% of criminal cases are settled by plea bargains and blacks do not have the funds for high powered lawyers, most blacks are intimidated into pleading guilty by the specter of a longer prison term if they resist a plea bargain and are convicted at trial.
The most disturbing factor in this insane policy of locking up everyone is the rise of for-profit prisons. States have sold out their prisons to private companies, which make a profit on incarcerating people. There is no incentive to reduce prison populations when private companies show healthy profits for doing this work.
A particularly egregious form of profit-making is the practice of charging inmates ridiculously large fees for making telephone calls. Here is a quote from a New York Times (NYT) article that shows clearly, in a nut shell, how excessive this practice is:
“Until the 1990s, inmates could place and receive calls to lawyers and family members at rates similar to those outside prison walls. But the prison phone system is now a $1.2 billion-a-year industry dominated by a few private companies that manage phones in prisons and jails in all 50 states, setting rates and fees far in excess of those established by regular commercial providers. The business is so considerable — some 500 million prison and jail phone calls totaling more than six billion minutes in 2014 — that it has caught the eye of private equity firms.”
The article can be found at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/31/us/steep-costs-of-inmate-phone-calls-are-under-scrutiny.html
It seems that there are only a few companies dominating this business: one company, Global Tel-Link, takes 50 percent of all revenue. These companies are being taken over by private equity firms because of their tremendous profit potential. The states are using these companies as a source of revenue, and the companies are obliging by paying enormous commission fees to the prisons for the privilege of controlling their phone service. Then the companies turn around and charge the inmates through the nose for making phone calls. Some charge as much as $1.22 a minute for in-state phone calls.
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has limited out of state phone charges to 20 cents a minute, but the companies have responded by jacking up the charges on in-state calls, which the FCC does not control, and which make up 90 percent of the calls. In addition, there are multiple charges for various aspects of the telephone service, such as paying your bill or maintaining a prepaid account.
The states are using the commissions that these companies pay (a total of $460 million last year) to subsidize many other aspects of incarceration, even unrelated expenses like the states’ general revenue funds. These charges result in another aspect of the retrogressive charges that poor people pay to support their government. These charges are similar to a retrogressive income tax, which places the greatest burden of taxation on those least able to pay.
The practice of incarcerating so many people is an unconscionable expense paid by taxpayers, and the way the incarceration is implemented places the greatest burden on those least able to afford it. This is just one more unjust practice that diminishes our faith in government and damages the social contract that is supposed to bind all people together in a fair and equitable society. We must fight to make all expenses of government progressive– paid for by those most able to pay and not those least able to resist.
Those who benefit most from government– wealthy people who obtain protection for their wealth from government services– must be made to pay the most for the administration of government: a progressive scale that charges the most to those most able to afford it.
The “situation” in Israel-Palestine is, in my humble opinion, the result of two opposing forces which have no interest in negotiation; both sides are interested only in conquering. The Zionist side made a strategically brilliant secret offensive that was conceived as early as the late 1800’s. The Arab side was at first completely disorganized, then completely brainwashed into a millenial monotheist dictatorship that is still militarily inadequate. There are dominant elements on both sides that make reasonable negotiation impossible. The current situation can only be separation by armed elements of the United Nations. Jerusalem should always have been a demilitarized, transnational territory. In particular, the Western Wall and the area that used to comprise the Temple in Jerusalem should be opened to archaeological inspection to determine what specific writings can be located that bear on the history of the three main monotheistic religions. The areas that ’til now have been restricted from archaeological exploration need to be opened up because there are likely to be writings that contradict elements of our history of religions.
This is also likely to be true of the Ka’ba in Mecca that has been occupied for thousands of years and reconstructed many times. There is only one entity that can impose archaeological exploration on all these sites. That is an alien that is able to impose its will by the use of superior force.
In “The Day the Earth Stood Still” the alien demonstrates his power by shutting off all the internal combustion and electric engines in the world for an hour. After this demonstration, he explains that the earth cannot be allowed to export its destructive behavior to other worlds or it will be destroyed.
It is clear that our self-destructive behavior will continue unless we are somehow forcefully explained that we are making a mistake.
Here’s a couple of comments from the New York Times (NYT) that bear repeating:
“[March 20 , 2015]
How do the right-wingers who voted for the prime minister based on his no-Palestinian-state pledge feel now? How do the Palestinians feel, hearing two diametrically opposed positions in the same week from their negotiating “partner”? Which position is accurate?
Will anyone trust Benjamin Netanyahu now or believe anything that he says? Why would they, given that he has proved himself to be nothing but a typical politician, one who seeks to have it both ways, to say or do anything to be re-elected?
When we seek to understand why so many voters and potential voters have become apathetic, if not hostile, to government at all levels, look at the Netanyahu farce of 2015. Disgraceful.
OREN M. SPIEGLER
Upper St. Clair, Pa.
”
“[March 20, 2015]
In focusing the blame entirely on Israel by stating that a change in the current situation cannot and will not come from within Israel, he completely ignores recent history regarding the intransigence of the Palestinian leadership.
In the waning days of the Clinton administration nearly 15 years ago, Israel made a very reasonable offer of land to the Palestinians for a state of their own. This offer was rebuffed outright with nary a counterproposal. Instead, the Palestinians launched a second intifada.
Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in the summer of 2005, which was the only time in history that anyone gave the Palestinians even an acre of land for themselves. The Palestinians responded by converting the territory into a rocket launching pad, directly provoking two wars.
The two-state solution has indeed “seen more funerals than a reverend,” but the main reason for that has been a Palestinian leadership apparently more interested in embracing a culture of death and destruction rather than one of life and hope.
JERRY RAPP
New York
“
How to Be Undetectable
“If you didn’t pick up the phone, if you didn’t go on the Internet, you didn’t use technology, you’re virtually undetectable,” a second law enforcement official said, speaking anonymously in order to discuss the investigation.
Haiti: the Population and the People
Population of Haiti, and Growth Rate Reduction With Rising Economy:
The Federal Survey that was extensively quoted in the last post also stated that the population of Haiti was about 8.3 million and that the growth rate was about 2.3 percent. Now the population is estimated at 10.6 million, despite a huge level of emigration to other countries such as the United States and a huge death rate from the earthquake of 2010. (See http://populationpyramid.net/haiti/2015/ )
The reason for the increase in population despite local deprivation is that each woman has an average of 4.9 children in her lifetime. There is a high death rate but the population is largely young and relatively dynamic, with a median age of 18.
There is clearly a tendency for women in poor countries to have more children. There is also a clear trend towards fewer children in countries that have higher economic status than before. Improved economic status over time frequently results in a lowered birth rate; this has been seen in some counties in India. What happens here is that the overpopulation problem tends to solve itself when the economic status of the society involved is increased significantly. This phenomenon has been demonstrated repeatedly in other situations. Economic improvement alone will reduce the number of children that each woman has (whether it is due to better education or more access to birth control and abortion is immaterial.) In a way, this is automatic women’s rights, because there is less stress on women when each has an average of only two children. There is more time between and after having children to engage in political activity in print and to demonstrate in favor of one’s cause.
Therefore, raising the economic status of a group of people will reduce population growth and show the way to solve the problem of overpopulation. In countries like the United States, the average birth rate is 1.8 children per mother, less than the replacement rate; population growth occurs only by immigration. This is the simplest way to solve Haiti’s problems, in particular their problem of overpopulation, where without excess children there would be no need to emigrate to the United States, which is quite the same as their problem of economic salvation.
To return to Haiti’s current situation:
We suggest that some of Haiti’s problems are related to their youthful population and rate of dynamic change secondary to that youth. As noted previously, the country’s median age is 18. The life expectancy at birth is an average of 53 years. The resulting population is unusually young and unstable.
There is, in addition, a group of unusually healthy and intelligent men and women who have been raised in privilege; in myth there are 400 citizens at the top who make all the decisions. This myth reflects the unusual degree of mythology involved in what appears to be decision making apparatus. We need only mention the use of voodoo in the administrations of Papa Doc and Baby Doc.
Another important transformation has to be discussed, which is that of the Aristide party. At first it was a civilly elected, democratic party which was saved by American intervention but later on, Aristide’s loyalty seemed to shift towards Russia and the administration of Vladimir Putin, now an enemy of the United States in Latin America for reasons that may be obscure to the average American.
Relief Plans, Why They Don’t Work:
The decisions of virtually all relief plans have resulted in large amounts of relief money going to the central administrative areas with relatively less distributed to the rural areas. There is clearly an enormous amount of money wasted on the administrative apparatus that goes with distribution of aid in the normal way– a sort of injection at the center that takes a long time to reach the periphery, with a great deal of material lost along the way. That’s how aid programs have always worked, because of the belief that other methods will result in lost material due to waste and fraud.
Pie in the Sky Solutions:
In a reversal of this pattern, there may be a way to route the relief to peripheral areas more quickly if one determines the pattern of very small administrative areas and uses single flights to distribute complete and comprehensive packages with ridiculously simple instructions to individual administrative centers.
There is also the relation to amount of aid given to the country to which the United States gives the most money in the world: Israel, at $3 billion a year. What if, instead of $250 million, Haiti was to get $3 billion a year in aid? How much would be wasted on graft and embezzlement? How much would go to the starving “farmer” with a tenuous relationship to a piece of land to lives in Port-au-Prince looking for a job, any job? With a wife and five children, he has a family, but one in eight of his family are living abroad. Likely with so much money , some of it would get to almost all of the people but a lot would go to those who control the top of the food chain.
Long Term Problems and Solutions:
There are ways to reduce the graft that inevitably reaches into aid programs but they may be unattractive, even violent to the average viewer. At present, I do not have all the answers to this problem, but I hope to present some in future posts.
In addition, I would like to go over Haiti’s history since its recognition as a country and discuss its significance, although this is a much more fraught discussion.
” Haiti has a uniquely tragic history.”
So goes the first sentence in the Federal Research Division profile of Haiti for 2006. Here follow key facts from the rest of the study:
“Slopes of more than a 20 percent grade cover nearly two-thirds of the country.”
“By agronomic standards, the majority of Haiti’s land (63 percent) is too steep for agricultural production, and only about 28 percent is considered arable. Despite this fact, nearly 80 percent of the country’s area functions, at least temporarily, as agricultural land. These less than ideal conditions make yields low and stability difficult. Only 11.5 percent of the land is used for permanent crops. Irrigation is limited, and the government’s recent commitment to irrigating 40,000 hectares within five years was called off with only 5,600 hectares improved. Mountains take up a significant portion of the country, and concentrated urban areas house most of the country’s population. ”
” Haiti faces a severe deforestation problem. In 1923 forests covered nearly 60 percent of the country; today they cover less than 2 percent. Until recently the government had done little to combat this problem. Because most Haitians still depend on wood and charcoal as their primary fuel source, energy alternatives are needed to save the forests.”
A number of plans have been proposed to help control these problems, but they have not shown significant progress to date.
“Haiti has extremely low life expectancy– about 53 years in 2006 (51.9 years for males and 54.6 years for females). Haiti had an estimated birthrate of 36.4 births per 1,000 population and a death rate of 12.2 deaths per 1,000 population in 2006. Haiti’s death rate ranks as the worst in the western hemisphere, as does its 2006 infant mortality rate of nearly 72 deaths per 1,000 live births.”
“In 2006 Haiti had an estimated population of 8.3 million, with an annual growth rate of about 2.3 percent. Haiti is the western hemisphere’s second most densely populated country (248 persons per square kilometer), trailing only Barbados.”
” Haitian women have an average of 4.9 children… The country’s median age is 18. About 42 percent of the population is 14 or younger…”
“Haiti’s literacy rate of about 53 percent (55 percent for males and 51 percent for females) falls well below the 90 percent average literacy rate for Latin American and Caribbean countries.”
“Currently, most Haitian schools are private rather than state-funded. International private schools (run by Canada, France, or the United States) and church-run schools educate 90 percent of students. ”
” 80 percent of Haiti’s population lives below the poverty line… half of all Haitian children are undersized as a result of malnutrition…only 43 percent of the target population receives the recommended immunizations… Per capita, Haiti spends about US$83 annually on health care… ”
“Haiti has the highest incidence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) outside of Africa… the United Nations projects the national prevalence rate to be 4.5 percent of the population. Other estimates place the rate as high as 12 percent in the urban population and 5 percent in rural regions…”
” The annual per capita income is about US$450, and most of the population (60 percent) faces underemployment… working and living conditions have been so poor that emigration, often by any means possible, has become a popular avenue of escape. About one out of every eight Haitians presently lives outside the country’s borders. ”
” Between 1995 and 2003, the United States contributed more than US$850 million to Haiti’s development. ”
” Only one in 50 Haitians has a steady wage-earning job… In 2005 Haiti had an estimated GDP of US$4.3 billion… ”
” Some estimates suggest that two-thirds of the country’s 3.6 million workers are without consistent work. Many Haitians survive through subsistence farming rather than looking for jobs in the overcrowded urban areas…”
“Agriculture, together with forestry and fishing, accounts for about one-quarter (28 percent in 2004) of Haiti’s annual gross domestic product and employs about two-thirds (66 percent in 2004) of the labor force… Of the total arable land of 550,000 hectares, 125,000 hectares are suited for irrigation, and of those only 75,000 hectares actually have been improved with irrigation… ”
The inflation rate has fluctuated wildly and has reached 40 percent a year at times. In 2004 it was 22 percent and in 2005, about 15 percent.
“Between 1999 and 2004, Haiti’s foreign benefactors—the United States, the European Union, the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank—jointly suspended aid disbursements in response to evidence of systematic electoral fraud and the failure of the Haitian government to implement accountability measures. Aid was restored in July 2004 after an interim administration was named. Haiti was scheduled to receive more than US$1 billion in pledged aid for 2005 and 2006. The United States pledged US$230 million in aid through fiscal year 2006. ”
The above quotes are merely brief snatches from a very large and comprehensive document that describes Haiti in minute detail, particularly including its history. The long history of political instability is well described, and includes the stories of corruption and violence that helped destroy many regimes.
It appears that most Haitians who remain in Haiti are primarily suited to be subsistence farmers, and the farming way of life has been severely impacted by soil erosion poor irrigation, loss of the native Creole pig, and price competition from cheap foreign rice. The amounts of money that have been provided in foreign aid look like a drop in the bucket compared to Haiti’s need.
The kind of help that it would appear Haiti needs most is agricultural: seeds, pigs, instruction in new techniques of farming, provision of anti-erosion materials and techniques, and most of all support to stay on the farm and encouragement to return to productivity. As a part of that massive farming aid program, it may be necessary to have land reform because there are indications that many farmers are stuck with small, multiply divided plots that are impossible to work efficiently.
Housing and building programs are also needed. Most Haitians live in substandard houses and conduct government business in buildings susceptible to earthquakes. A building program that includes structures resistant to earthquakes and to hurricanes as well is what the construction sector really needs.
There was a severely misguided attempt to bring Haiti from the agricultural world into the industrial world during the 1990’s and this led only to increased misery for the Haitian peasant. Since most of the people are still in the farm-living stage of development, aid is needed to make that stage strong enough to support them rather than to try to suddenly raise their stage of development.
All of this sounds like pie in the sky when I list it here. But there is little sense in untargeted, diffuse aid programs that provide little more than a handout.
Working directly with the people who need aid and bypassing government may be necessary to avoid corruption. The people in Haiti who are in control of politics and governance are probably too corrupt to be trusted. Resistance is to be expected from those sectors which feel slighted by this procedure and may even be violent.
Only by massive, targeted aid programs can Haiti be transformed from the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere into a semblance of a prosperous underdeveloped nation.