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Just so you know: Administration Predicts Coronavirus deaths may increase to 3,000 a day by the end of this month


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Multiple news outlets have “leaked” an administration document (bearing the imprimatur of the Department of Homeland Security but reportedly not shown to what’s his name) that predicts confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 may increase to an average of 3,000 a day (from the current nearly 2,000 a day) by the end of May.  The same document also predicts new infections may go up to 200,000 a day.  The latter figure is hard to accept given that we are doing less than 150,000 tests a day in the US at present.  That’s what the document is supposed to say: more infections than there are tests to diagnose them.

We know that there are many more infections than there are tests simply by reading the headlines: the antibody tests that have been done so far suggest that there are at least ten times as many infections as we are diagnosing currently.  Most of those infections are asymptomatic, which is lucky for those who are affected.  However, that still means that at least 0.4% of those infected are dying.

All of this means exactly what the general public expects: large majorities in opinion polls believe that the current lockdown is necessary despite its profound economic impact.  Large majorities also think that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.  In sum, we are in for some very heavy weather over the next few months.  This crisis is likely to last for a long time, at least until next spring.

So, dear friends, stock up on reading material, dried beans, and rice, because the meat supply is not going to improve and the lockdown will continue.  Try to come to an accommodation with whomever you share space.  Don’t worry about being evicted even if you can’t pay the rent.  No one is going to move in on you right now.

(This post does not cite any sources because it’s all over the news.  You can’t miss it unless you’re watching Fox.)

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