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Prediction: Weakness in the Turkish Economy will Spread to the European Union and Affect the United States; A Worldwide Depression Will Follow


American attacks on Turkey, including a 50% tariff on steel and multiple economic sanctions, have resulted in dramatic falls in the value of the Turkey currency, the lira, against the dollar.  This instability or weakness in the Turkish economy has already been present for some time, but it has been hidden by foreign assistance and loans.  The autocratic government of Erdogan has further weakened the Turkish economy.  Now Trump is lashing out against Erdogan (formerly his friend), ostensibly for his continued detention of an American evangelical (proselytizing) pastor on what the New York Times calls “trumped up” charges related to the attempted coup against Erdogan last year.  Erdogan has his own complaints: the US refuses to extradite to him a key opposition figure, Fethullah Gulen, who has long been a resident (refugee?) in the US.

Weakness in the Turkish economy and the fall of the lira will spread like a contagion to the EU and soon there will be a worldwide depression from which the United States will not be spared.  This conclusion is as simple as the observation that one falling domino will topple the next.

(figure courtesy of and PublicDomainPictures)

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