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A New, Bipartisan Electoral Shakiness for this November

2016-02-07

The latest New York Times (NYT) story has Gloria Steinem and other women political pioneers scolding young women for backing Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton.  “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other!” is how Madeline Albright termed it.

Indeed, there is a distinct political uncertainty created when one backs a seventy-four year old socialist Senator against the heir apparent to the Democratic leadership, a woman who is favored in every poll over every Republican.  Almost equal to the uncertainty introduced when one backs Donald Trump, a man who has already lost most of the female vote and all of the Hispanic vote, against Jeb Bush, who at least has the name value of a solid Republican.

An oddly symmetrical degree of political uncertainty develops when one considers the possibilities introduced by off-center candidates who might be thought unlikely to win but not having been considered against each other simply because they are so unlikely.  There is a potentially severe degree of Republican control of government created if the President happens to be Republican, with both houses of Congress majority Republican.  For Democrats, this is very bad.  History has also shown poor results, especially during the last Bush administration.

Recent history has shown good results for a Democratic President.  Steady economic improvement with a steadily dropping unemployment rate and a steadily dropping yearly deficit in accounts are the results of recent history.  In foreign policy, we have withdrawn from Afghanistan and Iraq, two painful, prolonged, and ultimately poorly benefitted conflicts, and avoided inserting troops in Lybia and Syria.  Avoiding open conflict in Syria and Iraq, in particular, has frustrated the ambitions of the Islamic State and negated their prophecies.

At the same time, the Democratic administration, in concert with multiple Western countries, has negotiated a treaty with Iran whereby the Iranians agree not to pursue offensive nuclear technologies and will receive relief of economic sanctions in return, creating an economic boon for both sides.  The Republicans have vilified this treaty but their negative arguments are not convincing when set against the agreements with a half-dozen other countries.

On the other hand, there is wide speculation among the Republican establishment about the tragic consequences of Trump being the Republican candidate for President and winning, to the destruction of Republican patronage.  This is a more serious consequence to them, the loss of establishment Republican influence and the take-over of the Tea Party Republicans.  They haven’t considered the possibility of the collapse of competent government after a Trump victory.  Nor have they considered the possibility of a descent into overt fascism with 12 million Mexicans taking the place of 6 million Jews.

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. Richard L Steagall permalink
    2016-02-07 17:44

    A lot of people — ,myself included — do not like Hillary Clinton. Steinham should not overplay the female thing. Hillary would not be considered for President were she not married to Bill. And she cannot carry Bill or Barack Obama’s briefcase as a politician. When they speak, people in the room are riveted. Hillary cannot even read a speech convincingly.

    I will vote for her, but I do not have to like the woman or the way she acts as of the nomination is hers by right.

    Like

    • 2016-02-07 17:48

      Hillary doesn’t come across nearly as well personally as Bernie does, does she? She can’t blame it all on Republican attempts to destroy her husband, then herself; she has acted more and more brittle as time goes by. If she could be Vice President to Bernie’s President…

      Like

      • Vicki Seitz permalink
        2016-02-22 12:17

        Hillary has been growing on me. I think she did a good job the Secretary of State, and she can clearly keep her head even when she’s under tremendous pressure. I don’t think she has to be likable to be a good president.

        Like

  2. Vicki Seitz permalink
    2016-02-22 12:14

    Not to mention the Muslims, regardless of their loyalties or beliefs. I am truly frightened of the possibility of fascism in our country.

    Like

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