The End of the World As We Know It

A recent article in The Independent with the same title as the above says that we are close to a tipping point between extinction and evolution to a greater plane. It draws together a number of recent insights on the issues of climate extinction and human evolution which are of interest to the casual reader.

The article notes that the Earth has reached a population of 8.2 billion humans, close to or beyond its carrying capacity. Researchers forecast cessation of population growth over the next 50 years, at about 10 billion people, followed by a gradual decline. Population decline has already begun in China and several other countries– South Korea is the worst. The decline is correlated with increased living standards. It is related especially to education for women and the development of universal birth control.

The article reminds us that if we continue current practices we will continue to rapidly degrade the environment and cause intolerable heating of the entire globe. The article describes the possibilities as evolution away from the internal combustion energy paradigm and survival, versus submission to an authoritarian government that chains us to the old paradigm and extinction.

We have seen that denial has successfully delayed action to combat climate change for 50 years. For a few years we were permitted to hope that action would finally begin, but denial has reared its ugly head again in the US. We have elected a president who calls climate change a hoax. As close as we are to a tipping point (although how close is unknown) we will only be closer after four more years.

If we don’t act, temperatures will continue to rise with the sea levels and all life on Earth will suffer the agonies of the damned. Extinction would naturally follow if this process is allowed to continue.

The article quotes a well-known expert:

“Industrial civilisation is facing ‘inevitable’ decline as it is replaced by what could turn out to be a far more advanced ‘postmaterialist’ civilisation based on distributed superabundant clean energy. The main challenge is that industrial civilisation is facing such rapid decline that this could derail the emergence of a new and superior ‘life-cycle’ for the human species”, Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, the bestselling author and journalist who is a distinguished fellow at the UK-based Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, said in a statement.

Dr Ahmed has written a paper, published in the journal Foresight, hypothesizing that we are close to a tipping point based on an analysis of multiple global crises that are currently befalling us.

His analysis says that civilizations evolve through a four-stage life-cycle: growth, stability, decline, and eventual transformation. These stages are not necessarily consecutive; decline may be followed by regrowth if the civilization is dynamic enough. Or a polity could transition directly from growth to transformation directly if a truly destabilizing event occurs. Transformation may mean extinction or it may involve evolution into a species more suited to its environment.

At the moment, our industrial, internal combustion civilization is going through a decline. Growth has continued year on year up to now. Industrial activities, specifically the burning of coal, oil, or gas, and the manufacture of cement have raised the concentration of carbon dioxide (among many other pollutants) higher every year. Even the rate of increase is increasing. This has caused climate change with predictable (and predicted) results: a 1.5 degrees Celsius warming of the globe so far, as of 2023.

Multiple simultaneous global crises signal that we are walking off a cliff. For example, the back to back hurricanes in the Southeast US, the floods, droughts, and wildfires in Europe, the latest fires in Los Angeles. These are natural disasters that may have occurred at any time in the past– but 50 years ago they would have been much less severe. Climate change has already caused a 20-25% increase in storm and fire severity.

Our survival is dependent on our adopting, rapidly and on a massive scale, non-carbon dioxide producing energy sources. We could do this beginning today; little new technology is needed. Right now, China is producing mass quantities of photovoltaic cells and batteries at very low prices. If we bought these items and installed them in every home, we could produce enough energy to abandon polluting facilities in a few years. Instead, we are barring Chinese EVs, solar cells, and batteries with obstructive tariffs.

The point is that if we don’t evolve soon, we will become extinct. We will all die, our children will die, and pretty soon there won’t be any people left. By the time that happens, the Earth will be a pretty unpleasant place.