Heat and Conflict

An opinion piece in the New York Times online from August 30 explains that increasing heat in the near future will probably stimulate more conflict, such as civil wars.  In the next 50 years, the average estimated increase in temperature will be 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit; this will increase the likelihood of war by 50 per cent.  The writers of the opinion piece did a meta-analysis of heat and conflict related research, and found that of 27 studies directly testing the hypothesis that increased heat leads to increased conflict, all 27 were positive.  This type of confidence in a hypothesis only occurs very rarely, so there is little to argue that heat doesn’t irritate people.

What is more, the heat will increase no matter what we do, because carbon dioxide levels will continue to rise and may persist for as long as three centuries given its unknown half life in the atmosphere.  All indications are that climate changes related to the increase in carbon dioxide have only just begun.

Therefore, there will be an increase in violent conflict throughout the world, perhaps varying with location as temperatures rise unevenly.  It is not hard to imagine the stress that could occur related to the heat, with crop failure and drought alternating with more powerful storms.  The question is how to prepare for and minimize the impact of the heat.

One resource that will be much appreciated in this situation is a plentiful supply of cheap electrical power.  There is much to be gained by intensive research into sources of power that are more efficient, cheaper, and don’t release carbon dioxide.  Naturally, nuclear sources are very attractive but also present significant risks.  Development of better wind and solar power resources has the added attraction of local production (reducing transmission line problems) which will be especially useful in isolated rural areas.

It is ironic that, prior to the passage of federal legislation establishing a rural electrification policy in the 1930’s, well-to-do farmers obtained their electricity from windmills that could produce as much as ten kilowatts of electric power, more than sufficient to run an entire modern home. Windmill generators were tried and true power sources for expeditions to the Antarctic.

Therefore, aggressive research into such power sources is likely to produce dramatic improvements in cost, efficiency, and power production.  At the same time, research into new battery technologies will be equally useful.  There is no time like the present for investment of research dollars to avert or adapt to the potentially catastrophic changes that are occurring in our atmosphere right now; otherwise there may be famine, civil war, pestilence, and a massive die off of the human species.

We can speculate as to the horrible alternatives facing us in the near future.  The death of more than half the human population will be an opportunity for evolution to pick out changes in the human genome, adaptive changes that may or may not be felicitous.  The average person’s appearance may change dramatically.  Hair, skin, nails, eyes, all may change in adaptive ways that may not be pretty.  Just a thought.